Labaran Masana'antu: Manyan Matsayi 5 Semiconductor: Samsung Ya Koma Sama, SK Hynix Ya Haura Zuwa Wuri Na Hudu.

Kamfanin bincike na kasuwa Gartner ya annabta cewa kudaden shiga na semiconductor na duniya zai karu da 18.1% daga shekarar da ta gabata (US $ 530 biliyan) zuwa dalar Amurka biliyan 626 a cikin 2024. Daga cikin su, ana sa ran yawan kudaden shiga na manyan masu samar da semiconductor na 25 zai karu da 21.1% shekara-shekara, kuma ana sa ran kasuwar kasuwar za ta karu daga cikin 7.2% zuwa 7.2%. 2024, karuwar maki 1.9 cikin dari.

Dangane da koma bayan tattalin arziƙin duniya, ƙarancin buƙatun samfuran samfuran semiconductor na AI kamar HBM da samfuran gargajiya ya ƙaru, wanda ya haifar da haɗaɗɗun aiki ga kamfanonin semiconductor. Ana sa ran Samsung Electronics zai dawo da babban matsayi da Intel ya rasa a cikin 2023 a cikin shekara guda. Ana sa ran samun kudaden shiga na semiconductor na Samsung a bara zai kai dalar Amurka biliyan 66.5, sama da kashi 62.5% idan aka kwatanta da na bara.

Gartner ya lura cewa "bayan shekaru biyu a jere na raguwa, kudaden shiga na samfurin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ya sake farfadowa sosai a bara," kuma ya yi hasashen cewa matsakaicin haɓakar Samsung na shekara-shekara a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata zai kai 4.9%.

Gartner ya yi hasashen cewa kudaden shiga na semiconductor na duniya zai karu da kashi 17% a shekarar 2024. A cewar sabon hasashen Gartner, ana sa ran kudaden shiga na semiconductor na duniya zai karu da kashi 16.8% zuwa dala biliyan 624 a shekarar 2024. Ana sa ran kasuwar za ta ragu da kashi 10.9% a shekarar 2023 zuwa dala biliyan 534.

Alan Priestley, mataimakin shugaban kasa kuma manazarci a Gartner ya ce "Yayin da 2023 ke gabatowa, bukatu mai karfi na kwakwalwan kwamfuta irin su na'urori masu sarrafa hoto (GPUs) wadanda ke tallafawa ayyukan AI ba za su isa su kawar da raguwar lambobi biyu a masana'antar semiconductor a wannan shekara ba," in ji Alan Priestley, mataimakin shugaban kasa kuma manazarci a Gartner. "Raguwar buƙatu daga abokan cinikin wayoyi da na PC, tare da raunin kashe kuɗi a cibiyoyin bayanai da cibiyoyin bayanan hyperscale, yana shafar raguwar kudaden shiga a wannan shekara."

Koyaya, 2024 ana tsammanin zai zama shekara ta sake dawowa, tare da kudaden shiga ga duk nau'ikan guntu suna girma, wanda haɓaka lambobi biyu ke motsawa a cikin kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.

Ana sa ran kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ta duniya za ta ragu da kashi 38.8% a cikin 2023, amma ta sake komawa cikin 2024 tare da haɓaka 66.3%. Ana sa ran kudaden shiga na ƙwaƙwalwar walƙiya na NAND zai faɗo da kashi 38.8% a cikin 2023 zuwa dala biliyan 35.4, saboda ƙarancin buƙata da yawa da ke haifar da faɗuwar farashin. A cikin watanni 3-6 masu zuwa, ana tsammanin farashin NAND zai ragu kuma yanayin masu kaya zai inganta. Manazarta Gartner sun yi hasashen samun murmurewa mai karfi a cikin 2024, tare da samun karuwar kudaden shiga zuwa dala biliyan 53, karuwar shekara-shekara na 49.6%.

Saboda tsananin wadatuwa da ƙarancin buƙata, masu samar da DRAM suna bin farashin kasuwa don rage ƙima. Ana sa ran kasuwar DRAM ta wuce gona da iri za ta ci gaba zuwa kashi na hudu na 2023, wanda zai haifar da koma bayan farashi. Koyaya, ba za a ji cikakken tasirin hauhawar farashin ba har sai 2024, lokacin da ake sa ran kudaden shigar DRAM zai karu da kashi 88% zuwa dala biliyan 87.4.

Haɓaka haɓakar basirar wucin gadi (GenAI) da manyan nau'ikan harshe suna haifar da buƙatar sabar GPU mai girma da katunan haɓakawa a cikin cibiyoyin bayanai. Wannan yana buƙatar tura masu haɓaka aikin aiki a cikin sabar cibiyar bayanai don tallafawa horo da ƙaddamar da ayyukan AI. Manazarta Gartner sun kiyasta cewa nan da shekarar 2027, hadewar fasahar AI cikin aikace-aikacen cibiyar bayanai zai haifar da sama da kashi 20% na sabbin sabobin da ke dauke da na'urori masu karfin aiki.